Cyber Insights 2024: Ransomware

By Kevin Townsend for SecurityWeek
Thursday, February 22, 2024

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Ransomware is a species of the genus Extortion. Extortion has always been a favored method of gaining funds, and always will be. Today it is probably more prevalent in the cyber world than in the physical world.

At the same time, extreme geopolitical tensions resulting from wars in Ukraine and Gaza will increase the inter- rather than intra-national element to hacktivism. “Next year,” suggests Ilia Kolochenko, chief architect at ImmuniWeb, “we should expect massive and unpredictable attacks from politically motivated hacktivists against innocent companies and organizations in specific countries or regions.”

These attacks will likely be highly destructive, aiming at paralyzing the operation of businesses that have little or no connection with the political process of their countries of incorporation. “The cyber infrastructure of hospitals, schools and even CNI, such as water supply facilities, may suffer long-lasting and irreparable damage.”

Current global geopolitics isn’t helping government efforts. “Law enforcement agencies and prosecutorial authorities [cannot] collaborate in complex cross-border investigations of organized cybercrime,” notes Kolochenko. “Ultimately, cyber gangs calmly operate from non-extraditable jurisdictions with impunity, enjoying steadily growing income paid by desperate victims. Given that from an economic viewpoint ransomware is a scalable and highly profitable business, we will likely see its hydra-like proliferation around the globe next year.”

The result, he warns, is that coupled with pay-as-you-go RaaS, “Good old ransomware may well attain the status of the global cyber pandemic in 2024.”

However, while governments may be unable to eliminate extortion payment through digital currencies, market forces could possibly succeed. Stockley raises the possibility of a cybercrime ‘singularity’: Bitcoin crashes to zero destroying ransomware. “Just about the most consequential thing that could happen to cybercrime,” he says, “is Bitcoin going away, which may not be likely, but isn’t out of the question. It requires significant effort to keep Bitcoin going and the cryptocurrency bubble has well and truly burst.”

He continues, “If Bitcoin starts to decline significantly the incentives that keep the massive infrastructure it relies on running could collapse, which could precipitate a loss of confidence in other crypto coins. Despite a plethora of digital currencies, ransomware is firmly wedded to Bitcoin and probably couldn’t exist without it, or a very similar replacement. Cybercrime wouldn’t go away, but it would enter a highly unpredictable phase as it reorganizes around new business models.” Read Full Article